All year long, I’ve been higher on the Golden State Warriors chances of success than most people. I thought they’d be one of the best teams in the Western Conference when the year began. When they struggled, I thought they would pull out of it. When they kept struggling, I recognized they probably wouldn’t pull out of it but still thought they could.

When they caught fire in February, I thought that was their authentic self. And now as they struggle again, I find myself agreeing with Steve Kerr that they have a big run ahead of them.

And yet, despite my interest and optimism in this year’s team, something else has been equally true. All year long, I’ve been fascinated by the upcoming offseason and next year’s team.

Hall of Fame-bound guards Klay Thompson and Chris Paul will likely be free agents, unless the team surprisingly picks up the latter’s $30 million option. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody will be entering the final year of their rookie-scale deals, eligible for rookie extensions; their play and their happiness with sporadic minutes from Kerr has been one of the biggest storylines of the past year, ebbing, flowing, flying, and shaking like that wooden roller coaster at the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk.

There are even more storylines than just those, of course, and they’ve all been fascinating to watch unfold; and they’ll continue to be fascinating as this season winds to a close, the offseason arrives and passes, and next year begins.

We shouldn’t turn our eyes too far from the present, but it’s always fun to look towards the future.

So I want to address something I’ve been thinking about a lot lately: what will next year’s starting five be? It’s a compelling question in part because the Warriors — 65 games into the season — haven’t really answered it for this year.

Kerr has started 11 different players this year, with eight of those players having double-digit starts (a figure that could easily be 10 by year’s end). Gary Payton II is the only rotation player who has yet to start this year, and the bulk of the starting lineup alterations have been due to play rather than injury.

I have no clue who will start Saturday when the Dubs face the Los Angeles Lakers, which makes it all the more fun — and, admittedly, fruitless — to try and guess who will start in October. But let’s at least look at the candidates.

Point guard

The incumbent: Steph Curry
The favorite: Steph Curry
The next option: Steph Curry
The dark horse: Steph Curry Chris Paul

There’s obviously no need to overthink this one. It’s Steph Curry through and through. I only added CP3 because if you squint enough you can see a world where the team never figures it out this year, restructures Paul’s contract to keep him in the fold at a more modest price point next year, and decides to take the defensive hit next season and just put two of the best point guards in NBA history next to each other from the onset.

Shooting guard

The incumbent: I don’t know?
The favorite: Brandin Podziemski
The next options: Moses Moody and Klay Thompson
The dark horse: Steph Curry

If I were predicting the lineup two years out, I might put Gui Santos as the dark horse; but if Paul is the dark horse point guard, then Curry has to be the dark horse shooting guard, even if this is a supremely unlikely scenario.

Shooting guard is a simply fascinating position, and it seems to be that every player given the opportunity fumbles it. Thompson had a very rough first few months of the season, but took off when moved to the bench … and has struggled mightily in the three games since that he’s been re-inserted into the starting five. Podziemski earned the starting spot but has played better in a bench role and now Kerr doesn’t seem to know where to put him. Moody has done well when put in the starting lineup, but the team seems to prefer him at the three than the two.

There’s a world in which Thompson signs elsewhere and the team trades Moody, but I’d be shocked if the former happens and surprised if the latter does. I suspect the playmaking and energy of Podz makes him the starter next to the aging Curry … but I can’t imagine Klay heads back to the bench if he experiences a resurgence over the summer and at camp.

Small forward

The incumbent: Andrew Wiggins
The favorite: Andrew Wiggins
The next option: Moses Moody
The dark horse: Jonathan Kuminga

I think there’s a pretty decent chance Wiggins gets traded this offseason, but I’m still betting on him being a Warrior when the next opening night rolls around. And if that’s the case, he’s the favorite to be the starter.

Moody has been a better player this year, in my eyes. But the Warriors will likely continue to bet on the upside that Wiggins showed during the 2021-22 championship season, in which he was named an All-Star starter. Or at least that’s what they’ll do at the start of the season, though I can’t imagine the leash will be as long as it has been this year.

Continued struggles from Wiggins — or a money-saving trade — would open the door for Moody to finally get a full-time chance. Then again, if the Dubs decide to go big, Kuminga could slide down a position, though that’s dependent on his three-point shot improving.

Power forward

The incumbent: Jonathan Kuminga
The favorite: Jonathan Kuminga
The next option: Jonathan Kuminga
The dark horse: Draymond Green

There are only three ways in which Kuminga is not the starting four next year: he gets traded (extremely unlikely); he gets injured (don’t even think about it); or the Warriors are playing bigger and slide him down to the three.

Otherwise, he’s the starting power forward for the foreseeable future.

Center

The incumbent: Draymond Green
The favorite: Draymond Green
The next option: Draymond Green
The dark horse: Trayce Jackson-Davis

I suspect that Jackson-Davis will be playing well enough to be the starting center by the start of next year; hell, he might be that right now. But the roster logjam makes things difficult. As well as TJD is playing, it’s not well enough to displace Green or Kuminga from the starting five. His only chances of making it into the starting rotation are the ones we just discussed with JK: someone is traded, someone is injured, or the team decides to play big.

Jackson-Davis’ athleticism and explosiveness making the idea of playing big a little more enticing, though it’s still hard to imagine Golden State going that direction unless Kuminga dramatically improves his three-point shooting (which could happen this offseason!).

Either way, I suspect that TJD will get somewhere in the ballpark of 25 minutes a night next year … they just might be coming off the bench.

For all the uncertainty I’ve spent 1,000 words discussing, it seems the most likely starting five next year is the one the team is currently entertaining: Curry, Podziemski, Wiggins, Kuminga, and Green. But it’s pretty easy to see it looking dramatically different … especially by the end of the year.