Who will win the MVP race this season between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continue to be the two favorites for the NBA’s MVP award with very little separation. Around this time last week, it was the Oklahoma City Thunder that led the Western Conference, resulting in Gilgeous-Alexander finding himself ranked at the very top of the NBA MVP rankings. Now, it is Jokic’s turn to regain this mantle, as the Denver Nuggets hold the lead in the West. Ultimately, this race for the MVP award may realistically come down to who has the better record at the conclusion of the 2023-24 NBA season.

Jokic and the Nuggets have been on a tear as of late, winning 14 of their 16 games since the All-Star break to regain control at the top of the West standings. In this span, Denver’s two losses were by 10 points in overtime to the Phoenix Suns and two points against the Dallas Mavericks. This loss to the Mavs came by way of Kyrie Irving sinking a ridiculous buzzer-beater.

The two-time NBA MVP has played in 15 of the 16 games Denver has played since the All-Star break, averaging 26.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game. His 13 double-doubles rank third behind Domantas Sabonis and Anthony Davis in this span, and Jokic’s seven triple-doubles trail Luka Doncic by just one. Case and point: Jokic has been nearly unstoppable during the stretch run of the season.

On the flip side of things, Gilgeous-Alexander continues to score with ease for the Thunder. Not only has he recorded at least 30 points in 11 of his last 16 games, but Oklahoma City has gone 12-4 in this span. In these 16 games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 28.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.9 steals while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor.

There is truly nothing that separates Nikola and Shai in this year’s MVP race. They both have the stats to back up their case for the NBA’s MVP award, and both of their teams are going to enter the playoffs with championship aspirations. The one difference that voters are already considering is where the Nuggets and Thunder end up in the standings, a difference that Inside the NBA host and NBA awards voter Ernie Johnson has pointed out as his ultimate tiebreaker in the race.

“For me personally, where the team finishes is the tiebreaker. If I look at a guy’s numbers, a guy’s season, and his impact on a team, and then I come down to the notion of, ‘Man, it’s a dead heat,’ then whoever has the better record matters,” Johnson told ClutchPoints in a recent exclusive interview. “Right now, I have no clue who I would choose between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This is some race for the MVP!”

So, who will ultimately walk away with the MVP award this season? Right now, Jokic appears to be on a collision course with his third MVP award in a four-year span, a feat only achieved by six different NBA legends: LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell.

Previous 2023-24 NBA MVP Rankings: Week 21 | Week 20 | Week 19 | Week 18 | Week 17 | Week 16 | Week 15 | Week 14 | Week 13 | Week 12 | Week 11 | Week 10 | Week 9 | Week 8 | Week 7 | Week 6 | Week 5 | Week 4 | Week 3 | Week 2 | Week 1

1. Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets 

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Previous Rankings: #2

2023-24 season stats: 68 games, 26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 58.1 FG%, 35.2 3P%

Prior to the All-Star break, Jokic had registered 15 triple-doubles in 53 total games. Since the All-Star break, Jokic has recorded seven triple-doubles in 15 total games. Recently, the Nuggets star had 30 points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists in a dominating 113-100 victory over Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks. Performances like this are what draw media voters in regarding Jokic’s chances of claiming his third MVP award in the last four NBA seasons.

Jokic did miss the Nuggets’ most recent game against the Portland Trail Blazers, which they won 114-111 without him. Now, he could potentially miss Monday night’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies due to lower back pain and left hip inflammation. The fact of the matter is that Jokic would be playing in these games if they were playoff games. At this point, Denver is only focused on winning another title, which is why they want to make sure their superstar is well-rested.

In regards to the MVP race this NBA season and Jokic’s eligibility, he has nothing to worry about. The Nuggets big man has only missed three games this year, meaning he could actually sit out the remainder of the season and still be eligible for the award since he would meet the 65-game minimum threshold. However, Jokic is not the type of player to sit out and rest, as he wants to be available every single game for his team. This is why he remains the MVP front runner in many people’s eyes.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Previous Rankings: #1

2023-24 season stats: 69 games, 30.5 points, 6.3 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 54.1 FG%, 36.7 3P%

At just 25 years old, Gilgeous-Alexander is promptly becoming one of those “next faces of the NBA” everyone always wants to talk about when bringing up Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant nearing the end of their respective Hall-of-Fame careers. He has single-handedly pulled the Thunder out of what was supposed to be a rebuilding process that spanned numerous years, and now Gilgeous-Alexander is on his way to being on the All-NBA First Team for the second consecutive year.

In addition to being third in the league in scoring behind Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, SGA ranks first in total points scored (2,107) and first in 30-point games this season, as he has registered at least 30 points in 50 of the 69 games he has played to this point.

Down the stretch run of the season, Shai and the Thunder face some very important matchups against the likes of the Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, Milwaukee Bucks, and Boston Celtics. All four of these teams have high championship aspirations ahead of the playoffs, which is why Gilgeous-Alexander can really stand out in the MVP race with dominant performances against them.

At this point, every single game is examined a little bit closer by voters. More games with 30-plus points and more wins for the Thunder give Gilgeous-Alexander even more votes in the MVP race.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Previous Rankings: #4

2023-24 season stats: 66 games, 30.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 61.6 FG%, 29.6 3P%

Giannis Antetokounmpo missed two games last week due to a hamstring injury. When he came back against the Brooklyn Nets on March 21, Giannis registered 21 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks in a 115-108 victory. Then, Antetokounmpo had 30 points, 19 rebounds, and four assists in the Milwaukee Bucks’ 118-93 victory over the Thunder on Sunday.

Although the Bucks have had their fair share of struggles this season, Giannis has always been a constant. He is the anchor of their defense, and has cemented the Bucks’ status as the second-best team in the East behind the Celtics. Milwaukee will play the Thunder again this season, a chance for Antetokounmpo to prove his worth over SGA in the MVP conversation.

4. Luka Doncic – Dallas Mavericks

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Previous Rankings: #3

2023-24 season stats: 61 games, 34.1 points, 9.8 assists, 9.0 rebounds, 48.8 FG%, 37.6 3P%

Since the All-Star break, Doncic has recorded eight total triple-doubles. Although the Dallas Mavericks struggled coming out of the break, losing five out of seven games, they have since won seven of their last eight due to Doncic’s heroics.

In the last seven games he has played, Doncic has led the Mavs to a perfect 7-0 record, averaging 30.1 points, 10.1 assists, and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 42.2 percent from the floor. These kinds of numbers scream MVP, but Luka has yet to take the Mavs out of the play-in region of the Western Conference standings.

It would be very hard to make a case for a player being the MVP of the season should his team have to fight for their playoff lives in the NBA Play-In Tournament.

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5. Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics

Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
Previous Rankings: #5

2023-24 season stats: 66 games, 27.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 47.3 FG%, 38.0 3P%

The best team in the league will see their leader in the running for MVP this season. Jayson Tatum has put together yet another incredible year, one in which he will be named to the All-NBA First Team for the third consecutive year. Boston is currently riding a nine-game win streak heading into the new week, and Tatum has scored at least 26 points in all seven of the games he has played in during this streak.

The Celtics own the best record in the league by seven games, and Tatum has consistently been a force on offense. This is hard to overlook in the MVP race this season.

Just missing the cut

6. Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves (Ranked No. 7 last week)

7. Jalen Brunson – New York Knicks (Ranked No. 8 last week)

8. Domantas Sabonis – Sacramento Kings (Ranked No. 7 last week)

9. Kevin Durant – Phoenix Suns (Ranked No. 9 last week)

10. Rudy Gobert – Minnesota Timberwolves (Unranked last week)